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Iran Defiantly Increases Threat to Strait of Hormuz with New Naval Base
Martin Barillas November 3rd 2008
Cutting Edge Senior Contributor
Iranian Warships near Strait of Hormuz
Iran opened a new naval base on October 27, 2008, at the southern mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic chokepoint for Persian Gulf oil.
About 20 percent of the world’s petroleum and 40 percent of the searborne crude traverse the Strait daily. As such, some 20 percent of America's daily oil needs, passes through the Strait, according to the Energy Information Administration. The EIA has dubbed it, “by far the world’s most important chokepoint.â€
Author Edwin Black in his book, The Plan, has spotlighted the fact that the United States has no plan in the event of an oil interruption. The threat to American oil was a point not lost on Iranian naval chief Habibollah Sayyari who was quoted as saying the base at the town of Jask (1,050 miles from Tehran) would enable Iran to block the entry of an "enemy" into the Gulf.
"In this region we are capable of preventing the entry of any kind of enemy into the strategic Persian Gulf if need be," said Sayyari. Iran appears to be bent upon extending its strategic reach to the Indian Ocean and the Sea of Oman, as well.
Iran has threatened to close the Strait in response to a potential military strike over its nuclear activities, while vehemently denying claims by Western powers that it is seeking to create a nuclear weapon. Even so, the Islamist controlled government continues its uranium enrichment program, which is feared to hide a process to make fuel for nuclear weapons.
There has been speculation that the U.S. or Israel might stage a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in response to Iran's refusal to halt the enrichment of uranium, a process which can be used to make fuel for nuclear bombs. Even so, an oil interruption staged by Iran could also have devastating effects for the region and the world. Hundreds of oil tankers pass through the Strait annually, laden with oil for the world. The Strait's navigable channel is only two miles wide in each direction. A military strike by Iran--reactive or premptive--could stop this flow. Any international military response would be met by the new Iranian naval base and a phalanx of missiles now possessed or in development by Iran and North Korea, as well as assymetical small swarming tactics, suicide forces, entrenched cave-based terror rockets and other forces.
Iran's Deputy Army Commander Brigadier General Abdolrahim Moussavi announced that the new naval base at Jask would serve as an “impenetrable naval barrier†against Iran’s potential adversaries, according to TV. Sounding bellicose, Moussavi stressed Iran’s commitment to expanding its strategic reach, arguing that, "In the past, our military had to brace itself for countering regional enemies. This is while today we are faced with extra-regional threats."
If the Strait should be closed, and the access to the world's markets for Saudi Arabia's oil terminals be hindered due to an attack, some six to nine million barrels per day will be taken off the global market, leading to an overnight oil price-hike to more than $200/bbl. Author Black has stated that with no plan for fuel shifting and retrofitting, within weeks the country would see food shortages, mass unemployment and a neighbor vs. neighbor scenario.
Iran could possibly cause a disruption without resorting to mining the Strait, as it did in the Iran-Iraq war. The world would rely on the United States Navy to eliminate this conventional threat. But US sea mine capabilities are predicated on a non-threatening environment, which is something that could not now be guaranteed given Iran’s missile batteries along its shores. At best, it could take weeks or months for the Navy to clear the strait of mines and restore confidence to shippers and the oil market. In today’s environment, however, the Navy would face Iranian cruise-missiles enhanced by North Korean technology launched from land-based and ship-based batteries. Thus the potential of further military escalation is obvious. The US has not faced such a cruise missile threat in the past. Argentina used a French-made Exocet short-range cruise missile in 1982 during the Falklands-Malvinas War that severely damaged the HMS Glamorgan destroyer. The cruise-missiles in Iran’s stockpile have a longer range. An October 28 test by North Korea, a supplier of technology to Iran, showed that it now has the capability of launching a sub-sonic cruise missile with a 100 mile effective range.
In order to protect its fleet, the US would be faced with the prospect of seeking and destroying the several hundred Iranian mobile land-based, anti-ship cruise missiles, mushrooming into a sustained naval and air warfare.
But experts believe Iran would not have to entirely shut down the Strait in order to cause an escalation of hostilities in the region and a resultant spike in oil prices. By laying just a few mines from its stockpiles, Iran could create a "virtual closure," convincing petroleum shipping companies and their insurers that the risk of passage outweighs the benefits. The mines that Iran is thought to have are the Russian-made MDM-6, delivered by ship or submarine, and ten times more powerful than those used in the 1980s. These detonate in response to acoustic, magnetic, or pressure phenomena within a range of 60 yards. These could halt or severely limit ship traffic through the Strait and the Persian Gulf. Iran is believed to have at least 2,000 such mines that can be delivered from its three frigates, two corvettes, three submarines and 10 fast missile boats. Iran maintains three ships in the Persian Gulf that appear to have dedicated mine-laying capabilities, plus three mine-laying helicopters. For a sense of scale, in 1972 the US Navy was able to totally shut down North Vietnam’s Haiphong Harbor with just 36 much less sophisticated mines.
Many believe the first test for the new American president will in fact be centered at the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran Defiantly Increases Threat to Strait of Hormuz with New Naval Base
Martin Barillas November 3rd 2008
Cutting Edge Senior Contributor
Iranian Warships near Strait of Hormuz
Iran opened a new naval base on October 27, 2008, at the southern mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic chokepoint for Persian Gulf oil.
About 20 percent of the world’s petroleum and 40 percent of the searborne crude traverse the Strait daily. As such, some 20 percent of America's daily oil needs, passes through the Strait, according to the Energy Information Administration. The EIA has dubbed it, “by far the world’s most important chokepoint.â€
Author Edwin Black in his book, The Plan, has spotlighted the fact that the United States has no plan in the event of an oil interruption. The threat to American oil was a point not lost on Iranian naval chief Habibollah Sayyari who was quoted as saying the base at the town of Jask (1,050 miles from Tehran) would enable Iran to block the entry of an "enemy" into the Gulf.
"In this region we are capable of preventing the entry of any kind of enemy into the strategic Persian Gulf if need be," said Sayyari. Iran appears to be bent upon extending its strategic reach to the Indian Ocean and the Sea of Oman, as well.
Iran has threatened to close the Strait in response to a potential military strike over its nuclear activities, while vehemently denying claims by Western powers that it is seeking to create a nuclear weapon. Even so, the Islamist controlled government continues its uranium enrichment program, which is feared to hide a process to make fuel for nuclear weapons.
There has been speculation that the U.S. or Israel might stage a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in response to Iran's refusal to halt the enrichment of uranium, a process which can be used to make fuel for nuclear bombs. Even so, an oil interruption staged by Iran could also have devastating effects for the region and the world. Hundreds of oil tankers pass through the Strait annually, laden with oil for the world. The Strait's navigable channel is only two miles wide in each direction. A military strike by Iran--reactive or premptive--could stop this flow. Any international military response would be met by the new Iranian naval base and a phalanx of missiles now possessed or in development by Iran and North Korea, as well as assymetical small swarming tactics, suicide forces, entrenched cave-based terror rockets and other forces.
Iran's Deputy Army Commander Brigadier General Abdolrahim Moussavi announced that the new naval base at Jask would serve as an “impenetrable naval barrier†against Iran’s potential adversaries, according to TV. Sounding bellicose, Moussavi stressed Iran’s commitment to expanding its strategic reach, arguing that, "In the past, our military had to brace itself for countering regional enemies. This is while today we are faced with extra-regional threats."
If the Strait should be closed, and the access to the world's markets for Saudi Arabia's oil terminals be hindered due to an attack, some six to nine million barrels per day will be taken off the global market, leading to an overnight oil price-hike to more than $200/bbl. Author Black has stated that with no plan for fuel shifting and retrofitting, within weeks the country would see food shortages, mass unemployment and a neighbor vs. neighbor scenario.
Iran could possibly cause a disruption without resorting to mining the Strait, as it did in the Iran-Iraq war. The world would rely on the United States Navy to eliminate this conventional threat. But US sea mine capabilities are predicated on a non-threatening environment, which is something that could not now be guaranteed given Iran’s missile batteries along its shores. At best, it could take weeks or months for the Navy to clear the strait of mines and restore confidence to shippers and the oil market. In today’s environment, however, the Navy would face Iranian cruise-missiles enhanced by North Korean technology launched from land-based and ship-based batteries. Thus the potential of further military escalation is obvious. The US has not faced such a cruise missile threat in the past. Argentina used a French-made Exocet short-range cruise missile in 1982 during the Falklands-Malvinas War that severely damaged the HMS Glamorgan destroyer. The cruise-missiles in Iran’s stockpile have a longer range. An October 28 test by North Korea, a supplier of technology to Iran, showed that it now has the capability of launching a sub-sonic cruise missile with a 100 mile effective range.
In order to protect its fleet, the US would be faced with the prospect of seeking and destroying the several hundred Iranian mobile land-based, anti-ship cruise missiles, mushrooming into a sustained naval and air warfare.
But experts believe Iran would not have to entirely shut down the Strait in order to cause an escalation of hostilities in the region and a resultant spike in oil prices. By laying just a few mines from its stockpiles, Iran could create a "virtual closure," convincing petroleum shipping companies and their insurers that the risk of passage outweighs the benefits. The mines that Iran is thought to have are the Russian-made MDM-6, delivered by ship or submarine, and ten times more powerful than those used in the 1980s. These detonate in response to acoustic, magnetic, or pressure phenomena within a range of 60 yards. These could halt or severely limit ship traffic through the Strait and the Persian Gulf. Iran is believed to have at least 2,000 such mines that can be delivered from its three frigates, two corvettes, three submarines and 10 fast missile boats. Iran maintains three ships in the Persian Gulf that appear to have dedicated mine-laying capabilities, plus three mine-laying helicopters. For a sense of scale, in 1972 the US Navy was able to totally shut down North Vietnam’s Haiphong Harbor with just 36 much less sophisticated mines.
Many believe the first test for the new American president will in fact be centered at the Strait of Hormuz.