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Study suggests Navy speed up sub work
By JON W. GLASS, The Virginian-Pilot
© May 8, 2007 | Last updated 9:00 PM May. 7
A new study released Monday recommends the Navy accelerate design work on its next class of submarines or risk losing vital shipyard skills and driving up shipbuilding costs.
Speeding up design work would add stability to shipbuilder Northrop Grumman Newport News, helping the yard maintain a work force of experienced designers and engineers.
The Navy already has embraced the advice, said John Schank, a senior analyst and lead author of the study for Rand Corp.'s National Defense Research Institute. The Navy commissioned the group to do the study.
"Our message to the Navy was that you don't want to let your design resources shrink below a certain level," Schank said Monday. "The big thing is to be careful about the loss of experience and productivity."
The Navy's response has been to move up plans for construction of a new class of ballistic-missile submarines to 2019 - three years earlier than scheduled a year ago, Schank said. The change shows up in the Navy's latest update to its 30-year shipbuilding plan, submitted to congressional leaders in February.
Advancing construction will help close a gap in design work that had been expected as Northrop Grumman and its sub-building partner, General Dynamics Electric Boat of Groton, Conn., wind down major design efforts on the Navy's Virginia-class fast-attack submarines.
Design work on the ballistic submarines - to replace the Ohio-class Trident vessels - is now expected to start around 2011 instead of 2014. Typically, 15 years pass between the start of design of a new class of submarines to the delivery of the lead ship, Schank said.
The shipbuilders had anticipated a design gap of five years or more and feared losing yard talent. That would drive up costs by adding such expenses as hiring and training inexperienced employees.
Northrop Grumman last year cited a 10-year gap in the yard's delivery of a submarine as a major reason for cost overruns and delays on the Texas, the first Virginia-class sub the yard delivered.
"There is a significant risk of losing skills and capabilities in the submarine design industrial base if the design for the next submarine isn't started until 2014," said Becky Stewart, vice president of Northrop Grumman Newport News' submarine program.
With feedback from the shipbuilders, the Navy recognized a potential problem looming. For the first time since the start of the Navy's nuclear submarine program in the 1950s, no new design project is under way or about to begin, Schank said.
The service asked Rand, a nonprofit research group based in California with a Washington office, to examine options and the costs involved to address the situation.
Rand's recommendation "essentially validates the Navy's general thinking on the matter and provides the Navy with a more fine-grained analytical foundation for moving ahead with this option," said Ron O'Rourke, a defense analyst for the Congressional Research Service, in an e-mail.
Navy officials were not available for comment.
The $975,000 study concluded that the Navy could save $500 million to $1.2 billion by accelerating submarine design work.
With the Navy's recent actions, Schank said work for designers and engineers at Newport News and Electric Boat should remain fairly stable. Both are now working on designs to further reduce costs in the Virginia-class program, and Newport News is busy on design work for the Navy's new Ford-class aircraft carrier, he said.
To retain critical design skills, Newport News needs a core force of 1,050 designers and engineers, the study found. At the peak of a submarine-design program, a yard needs 2,500 to 3,000 designers and engineers.
"Our perspective was that you want to keep their submarine-unique skills honed and, whatever you have them do, you want some kind of useful product for the Navy," Schank said. "This can't be just a make-work exercise."
By JON W. GLASS, The Virginian-Pilot
© May 8, 2007 | Last updated 9:00 PM May. 7
A new study released Monday recommends the Navy accelerate design work on its next class of submarines or risk losing vital shipyard skills and driving up shipbuilding costs.
Speeding up design work would add stability to shipbuilder Northrop Grumman Newport News, helping the yard maintain a work force of experienced designers and engineers.
The Navy already has embraced the advice, said John Schank, a senior analyst and lead author of the study for Rand Corp.'s National Defense Research Institute. The Navy commissioned the group to do the study.
"Our message to the Navy was that you don't want to let your design resources shrink below a certain level," Schank said Monday. "The big thing is to be careful about the loss of experience and productivity."
The Navy's response has been to move up plans for construction of a new class of ballistic-missile submarines to 2019 - three years earlier than scheduled a year ago, Schank said. The change shows up in the Navy's latest update to its 30-year shipbuilding plan, submitted to congressional leaders in February.
Advancing construction will help close a gap in design work that had been expected as Northrop Grumman and its sub-building partner, General Dynamics Electric Boat of Groton, Conn., wind down major design efforts on the Navy's Virginia-class fast-attack submarines.
Design work on the ballistic submarines - to replace the Ohio-class Trident vessels - is now expected to start around 2011 instead of 2014. Typically, 15 years pass between the start of design of a new class of submarines to the delivery of the lead ship, Schank said.
The shipbuilders had anticipated a design gap of five years or more and feared losing yard talent. That would drive up costs by adding such expenses as hiring and training inexperienced employees.
Northrop Grumman last year cited a 10-year gap in the yard's delivery of a submarine as a major reason for cost overruns and delays on the Texas, the first Virginia-class sub the yard delivered.
"There is a significant risk of losing skills and capabilities in the submarine design industrial base if the design for the next submarine isn't started until 2014," said Becky Stewart, vice president of Northrop Grumman Newport News' submarine program.
With feedback from the shipbuilders, the Navy recognized a potential problem looming. For the first time since the start of the Navy's nuclear submarine program in the 1950s, no new design project is under way or about to begin, Schank said.
The service asked Rand, a nonprofit research group based in California with a Washington office, to examine options and the costs involved to address the situation.
Rand's recommendation "essentially validates the Navy's general thinking on the matter and provides the Navy with a more fine-grained analytical foundation for moving ahead with this option," said Ron O'Rourke, a defense analyst for the Congressional Research Service, in an e-mail.
Navy officials were not available for comment.
The $975,000 study concluded that the Navy could save $500 million to $1.2 billion by accelerating submarine design work.
With the Navy's recent actions, Schank said work for designers and engineers at Newport News and Electric Boat should remain fairly stable. Both are now working on designs to further reduce costs in the Virginia-class program, and Newport News is busy on design work for the Navy's new Ford-class aircraft carrier, he said.
To retain critical design skills, Newport News needs a core force of 1,050 designers and engineers, the study found. At the peak of a submarine-design program, a yard needs 2,500 to 3,000 designers and engineers.
"Our perspective was that you want to keep their submarine-unique skills honed and, whatever you have them do, you want some kind of useful product for the Navy," Schank said. "This can't be just a make-work exercise."